I don't think...
Mood:  quizzical
Topic: Football
That the Skins will win this game, but they've certainly put a more valiant effort in than they have been on offense... Ramsey just needs to get comfortable in the offense, and the receivers need to do a better job of hauling in the ball. We may not make it to the playoffs this year, but we're starting to at least come together as a team!!!

'bout DAMN TIME!!
Mood:  celebratory
Topic: Football
Gibbs finally pulled Brunell and put in Ramsey!!! They're down 17-0 at the half (that's why he did it, I imagine)... Brunell had numbers along the lines of 1/8 for 6 yards and 1 INT. HURTING!! My man Patsy came in and is 2/5 for 26 yards or something. Still not spectacular, but I imagine that he isn't getting the reps in practice. I just hope this doesn't end up being merry-go-QB like when Spurrier first started coaching... that was ridiculous. You could hear the crowd going nuts when they saw Patrick warming up on the sidelines, it was great! I'm beating Kurt in our Harms league... and I'm doing it without three of my star players -- Priest Holmes, Drew Brees and Antonio Gates... I have in Hasselbeck at QB, who did horribly, he got me 5 friggin' points!! But Blaylock filled in nicely for Priest (coincidentally he's Priest's backup in KC), getting me 27 points, and I picked up Dallas Clark at TE and he got me 22!! That's unheard of for a TE, except for Gates, of course who gets me close to that weekly. ;) I be double-dippin'!! Uh oh... game's back on. GO SKINS!!!!

I'm sure you've all seen this...
Mood:  quizzical
Now Playing: 3 doors down
Topic: Football
My neighbor Dave first said something about this to me a few months ago, and I decided to look it up. I know that if you have enough time on your hands, you can draw a correlation between pretty much anything, but the odds of this happening are pretty incredible! Of course, this is all a big coincidence, but it is still kind of cool. Damn do I love Snopes.com! :)

Winning Tradition

Claim: The outcome of Washington Redskins football games has correctly predicted the winner of every U.S. presidential election since 1936.

Status: True.

Example: [Collected on the Internet, 2004]

FOOTBALL + ELECTION

Did you know....??

The Washington Redskins have proved to be a time-tested election predictor. In the previous 15 elections, if the Washington Redskins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power.

This election year, that deciding game takes place on Sunday, October 31 ... vs. Green Bay.

Go Pack!!!



Origins: Our desire to understand and assert some control over the world around us is often manifested by our attempts to find predictive signs that enable us to prognosticate events -- even when there is no seeming connection between predictor and event. Sometimes one natural phenomenon supposedly forecasts another, as in the belief that a groundhog's seeing his shadow on February 2 portends another six weeks of winter. In other instances the linkage is between affairs of mankind, as in the superstition that the winner of football's Super Bowl augurs that year's stock market performance (or vice-versa).

A recent item of this ilk maintains that the results of the last game played at home by the NFL's Washington Redskins (a football team based in the national capital, Washington, D.C.) before the U.S. presidential elections has accurately foretold the winner of the last fifteen of those political contests, going back to 1944. If the Redskins win their last home game before the election, the party that occupies the White House continues to hold it; if the Redskins lose that last home game, the challenging party's candidate unseats the incumbent president. While we don't presume there is anything more than a random correlation between these factors, it is the case that the pattern has held true even longer than claimed, stretching back over seventeen presidential elections since 1936:

On 30 October 2000 the Washington Redskins lost a Monday night game at home to the Tennessee Titans, 27-21, presaging a loss for the incumbent Democratic party. Since President Bill Clinton had already been elected to the constitutionally-mandated maximum of two terms in office, the 7 November 2000 presidential election pitted Democratic Vice-President Al Gore against Republican Governor George W. Bush of Texas. In the closest (and most controversial) presidential election since 1876, Governor Bush gained the White House by the slim margin of five electoral votes, thereby fulfilling the Redskin prophecy.
On 27 October 1996 the Washington Redskins defeated the Indianapolis Colts at home, 31-16, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. Sure enough, in the 5 November 1996 general election, Democratic President Bill Clinton won re-election over his Republican challenger, Senator Bob Dole of Kansas.
On 1 November 1992 the Washington Redskins lost to the New York Giants at home, 24-7, predicting a similar loss for the incumbent Republicans. As expected, in the 3 November 1992, Republican President George H. W. Bush lost his re-election bid to Governor Bill Clinton of Arkansas.
On 6 November 1988 the Washington Redskins edged the New Orleans Saints at home, 27-24, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans. As President Ronald Reagan had already been elected twice, the 8 November 1988 election once again matched a sitting Vice-President, Republican George H. W. Bush, against a challenger, Democratic Governor Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts. True to form, Vice-President Bush emerged victorious.
On 5 November 1984 the Washington Redskins bested the Atlanta Falcons in a Monday night home game, 27-14, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans. The next day, President Ronald Reagan handily defeated his Democratic challenger, former Vice-President and Senator Walter F. Mondale of Minnesota, winning re-election with an electoral vote landslide.
On 2 November 1980 the Washington Redskins were trounced at home by the Minnesota Vikings, 39-14, predicting a loss for the incumbent Democrats. As expected, on 4 November 1980 President Jimmy Carter failed in his re-election bid, losing to his Republican opponent, former California governor Ronald Reagan.
On 31 October 1976 the Washington Redskins were spooked by the Dallas Cowboys in a Halloween Day home game, losing 20-7 and predicting a loss for the incumbent Republicans. Two days later, on 2 November 1976, Democratic Governor Jimmy Carter of Georgia unseated President Gerald Ford (who had been appointed Vice-President after the resignation of Spiro Agnew in 1973 and became chief executive in 1974 after President Richard Nixon also resigned).
On 22 October 1972 the Washington Redskins edged the Dallas Cowboys, 24-20, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans. The 7 November 1972 election resulted in the electoral vote landslide re-election of President Richard Nixon over the Democratic nominee, Senator George McGovern of South Dakota.
On 27 October 1968 the Washington Redskins lost a close game to the New York Giants, 13-10, predicting a loss for the incumbent Democrats. Since President Lyndon B. Johnson had announced several months earlier that he would not seek another term as president, the <>1968 election was a contest between sitting Vice-President Hubert Humphrey and a former Vice-President, Republican Richard Nixon. In a mirror of the Redskins game, the Democrats lost in a close contest (the two candidates were separated by a slim 0.6% margin in the popular vote).
On 25 October 1964 the Washington Redskins beat the Chicago Bears, 27-20, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. As predicted, on 3 November 1964 President Lyndon Johnson (who had ascended to the White House after the assassination of President Kennedy in 1963) won a landslide victory over Republican Senator Barry Goldwater of Arizona.
On 30 October 1960 the Washington Redskins were pasted at home by the Cleveland Browns, 31-10, predicting a loss for the incumbent Republicans. President Dwight D. Eisenhower had already served two terms, so Vice-President Richard Nixon took up the Republican mantle against Senator John F. Kennedy of Massachusetts in the 8 November 1960 presidential election. Like the Redskins, the Republicans lost; unlike the Redskins, the Republicans made the contest a very close one. (Kennedy bested Nixon by a mere 0.2% margin in the popular vote.)
On 21 October 1956 the Washington Redskins soundly defeated the Cleveland Browns at home, 20-9, predicting a win for the incumbent Republicans on 6 November 1956. And, for the second straight election, the Republicans and their standard-bearer, Dwight D. Eisenhower, prevailed over the Democratic nominee, Adlai Stevenson.
On 2 November 1952 the Washington Redskins lost a squeaker to the Pittsburgh Steelers at home, 24-23, predicting a similar loss for the incumbent Democrats. President Harry S. Truman declined to run for re-election (he had already served eight years), leaving the field open for former Illinois governor Adlai Stevenson to stand against the Republican candidate, General Dwight D. Eisenhower. The Democrats' loss on 4 November 1952 was not nearly as close as the Redskins' had been.
On 31 October 1948, the Washington Redskins walloped the Boston Yanks at home, 59-21, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. Two days later, In one of the most stunning political upsets in U.S. history, President Harry S. Truman (who had assumed office in 1945 when President Franklin D. Roosevelt died shortly after beginning his fourth term) defeated his Republican challenger, Governor Thomas E. Dewey of New York.
On 5 November 1944, the Washington Redskins trimmed the Cleveland Rams at home, 14-10, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. And win the Democrats did, as President Franklin D. Roosevelt secured an unprecedented fourth term by defeating the Republican nominee, Thomas Dewey, on 7 November 1944.
On 3 November 1940, the Washington Redskins thrashed the Pittsburgh Pirates (forebears of today's Steelers team) at home, 37-10, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. Likewise, Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt became the first (and only) three-term president as he thrashed Republican challenger Wendell Willkie of New York (a former Democrat who had never held high elected office) on 5 November 1940.
Going back to 1936 puts us beyond the beginnings of the Washington Redskins, as that year the Redskins franchise was still playing in Boston. Nonetheless, their knack for foretelling the outcome of presidential elections was already in place. On 1 November 1936 the Boston Redskins downed the Chicago Cardinals at Fenway Park, 13-10, predicting a win for the incumbent Democrats. Two days later, President Franklin D. Roosevelt won his re-election over Republican Governor Alf Landon of Kansas.
That is as far back as the streak goes. In 1932 the Washington Redskins were neither the Redskins nor a Washington team: they were the Boston Braves, and they played in Braves Field, which they shared with the National League baseball team of the same name. On 6 November 1932 they won at home against the Staten Island Stapletons, 19-6, a result that should have foretold a presidential victory for the incumbent Republican party. Neither the Redskins' team name nor their predictive powers were yet evident, however, as President Herbert Hoover lost to his Democratic challenger, Governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt of New York on 8 November 1932

What do we make of all this? Nothing. We see it as coincidence, as evidence that anyone who tries long and hard enough can find apparent patterns in any collection of data. But for those who believe in this sort of thing, the Redskins' last home game before the 2 November 2004 election is a Halloween Day contest against the Green Bay Packers -- Republican supporters will be rooting for the Redskins, and Democratic supporters will become Cheeseheads for a day.

Football frustrations
Mood:  blue
Now Playing: maroon 5
Topic: Football
Maybe I get too sensitive or worked up over football, but some other fans just really piss me off. I think that most of you know that I'm happy to give credit where it's due, and I call things like I see them. For example, the Giants are looking DAMN good. So are the Eagles. The Cowboys? Ehh... are they better than the Skins right now? Maybe. They beat the Skins, but that was because of some B.S. calls. The Ravens? I have to say that the Ravens and the Redskins right now are actually very similar - neither of them can get it going on offense, but both have excellent defenses. Oh, and I was talking about calls - why the hell wasn't Deion Sanders called on that obvious pass interference call during the first half?? Actually, there were two that should have been called. But whatever.

Anyway, I had a point to this rant... I don't gloat or say ignorant things when the Redskins win (hell, I haven't really been able to!) to the fans of the teams that they beat. I don't say nasty things to Cowboys fans or Ravens fans when their team gets their (collective) ass(es) kicked. Last week I was even trying to encourage those stupid Ravens fans after their loss to Kansas City - that they were playing a team that was desperate for a win, and that's a very dangerous thing - especially when that desperate team has Priest Holmes in their lineup. Not to mention that the Ravens only lost by 3 points.

I might secretly gloat when the Cowboys or Ravens get pummeled by another team, but I never say anything snide about it. Did I mention that the Giants look good? Hehe... I think that I might jump onto the Giants bandwagon now, I need to cheer for a team with a winning record. I guess that it would be hard to go against the Patriots, too. Ironically enough, the last team to beat the Patriots was the Redskins last year!

Why am I so pissed off? I'm actually feeling a bit better now, honestly. Maybe I just needed to vent. Oh, but the same Ravens fan (who I generally consider a friend, but they have a tendency to be a bit on the asinine and uppity side at times) who was saying how bad the Ravens suck is the same person making spiteful remarks to me this morning. "Did you watch the game last night?" "Yes, unfortunately, but I turned it off during the last two minutes." (this is a tactic I should employ more often, since I frequently get my hopes up for some fantastic play that will change our fortune in the last few minutes) "Yeah, great game, wasn't it?" "No, it was awful, neither offense looked good." "Did you see who won? It was a great game!!" "Whatever you say." "Man, the Ravens were really great, weren't they?"

What a jerk.

Keep believing you can win games with Kyle Boller at QB and no receivers to speak of! That would be like me believing that the Redskins can win with the game plan that we have now.

Clinton Portis is a bust. Mark Brunell is mediocre at best. Our receivers can't hold onto balls.

Bench Portis. Put in Sultan McCullough or Rock Cartwright. Bench Brunell. Put in Ramsey. Bench 50-50 (Gardiner). Put in McCants. Get Arrington back in the game. Make sure Matt Bowen is healthy. It's obvious that "smashmouth football" isn't going to work with the O-line we have now, so you need to throw the ball down the field. If the defense knows that all your going to do is run, they're going to stop you. If you take the shots downfield, spread them out a bit, then you're going to find some holes to run up the middle. Until they start doing more than throwing crappy screens and running up the middle, they're going to lose. Hell, try a couple trick plays once in a while! 50-50 can probably throw the ball better than he can catch it, so get him in there on something.

Here endeth the lesson. Coach Gibbs, you listening??

The good news is that both of my fantasy teams look like they are going to win - one of them by only one point, but I'll take a win any way I can get it.

just shoot me...
Mood:  incredulous
Topic: Football
The Redskins actually lost to the Browns... the cause: turnovers as usual! If only they wouldn't turn the ball over in the places they usually do -- near either goal line. That just sucks. I think that Portis needs a serious talkin-to! He looked awfully Tiki Barberish today... to compound my problems, the QB I picked up for today got me -1 points!! I'd have been better off putting in Hasselbeck who had a friggin' bye this week!!! Oh well... the guy I'm playing is only 3 points ahead of me and I still have the Priest and Joe Horn going.

My finger is feeling a lot better... doc just told me to soak it in a warm peroxide & water mixture and she gave me some prescription antibiotic cream to put on it... the swelling has gone down at least 50% and it's nowhere near as painful...

Still have studying to get done for the test tomorrow... might do that instead of watching the 4pm game.

The Skins play the Ravens next... that's really going to suck... just put us down for 1-4 out of the gate... there's no way we're going to beat Baltimore... hopefully we'll at least beat Chicago the following week! :-/

Maybe I'll have to find another team to cheer for this season.

WE WUZ ROBBED!
Mood:  incredulous
Now Playing: Jonny Lang
Topic: Football

Cowboys won, 21-18. Both of my FF teams lost. So it was a devastating football weekend for me. Oh, and I was playing Kurtis in the Harms league and his team completely went off... his team got 145 friggin' points. I didn't even get that in my first game. This jerk in our league, Bryan, incidentally a Cowboys fan was talking a bunch of trash in our league last night after the loss. He was really being an asshole. This is the same guy who didn't show up to the football party we had last year and didn't call, either.

I think that the Skins played pretty well last night - there was some bad play calling (that horrific red zone debacle where they just couldn't get it in)... they should have abandoned their attempts to pound it up the middle (at the goal line) and instead run a sweep to the side like we saw in the preseason - I can't remember seeing them run that play ONCE during the regular season, don't know what's up with that. AND they botched it with some of the dumb penalties (primarily in the first half - and two on Dockery, at least Samuels kept control of himself this time), at least two of their timeouts in the second half were unnecessary (when Brunell called time because the play clock was running down and then when Gibbs challenged the Cowboys TD), but that was pretty much it! I think that they played well, there were no turnovers, etc.... if you look at the Box score, the Skins outplayed the Cowboys -- First downs - Cowboys 14, Redskins 21. Total net yards - Cowboys 287, Redskins 384. The Skins even had the ball for over 35 minutes!!! Come on, now!!! The Redskins got WHORED by the officiating, mostly. Sure, there are things they could have done better, but statistically the Skins were the better team last night... and because of that first idiotic pass interference call that went against the defense, the Cowboys got an automatic 1st & goal!! That was on 3rd down, too. What a bunch of crap. That was most definitely OFFENSIVE pass interference. I mean, if you're going to call that, why the hell don't you call it when the Cowboy's defender (can't remember which player) was ALL OVER Rod Gardner in the end zone, grabbed his jersey so hard that his shoulder pads popped out, but yet why wasn't that guy called?? Grrr. It sucks to be a Redskins fan these days. When they actually have a decent game, they have awful luck with the refs. What a pain in the ass. I predict that the next time they play the Cowboys, they are just going to embarrass them - even shut them out. That might be bold to say, but I really believe that we'll get them next time. That trend has to end... 12 of the last 13 games?? (or was is 13 of the last 14?) Doesn't matter, either one is pathetic and it's going to stop this year.

That's the end of my football entry... on to school!

horrific
Mood:  hug me
Topic: Football
The Redskins lost to the Giants, 20-14........... and you know what? They didn't deserve to win. 7 freaking turnovers?!?! I couldn't believe that they weren't completely pummeled. That game was just inexcusable. Hopefully they've learned their lesson and can move on from here.

Of course, Ramsey blew it by his last interception... he was doing well, but to just throw the ball up in the air and hope that someone grabs it?? Come on, now, Patsy!!! You were my favorite QB last year even when you were getting beaten to hell.

ugh.

So congrats, Col Mustard! It's a win for you, but it should have been a blowout. It definitely showed that both teams have a lot of work to do. :-/

Looks like I'm going to have THREE wins this weekend...
Mood:  celebratory
Topic: Football
The Skins beat Tampa Bay... (and the Browns beat the RAVENS!! go Cleveland) Oh, AND The Vikings beat the crap out of Dallas... I'm for whoever beats the Cowboys. :) Col... my condolences for your loss today, and I have to say, I fear for my 'Skins against the Eagles, because they look pretty damn good. And I do have to hand it to Kurt Warner, he didn't do as poorly as I expected, and Tiki had that great 70 yd TD run... just too little, too late. We'll see what happens next weekend -- you have home field advantage, too!

Puta's Pummeller's (Harms league) currently has 98 points -- and I still have Priest Holmes going tonight -- my opponent has 82 points and they only have their TE going. BTW, I had a sudden impulse about 20 minutes before kickoff that I should pick up the Redskins defense, and let me tell you, they DID NOT let me down! So far, my D has the highest points -- 23 in that particular league. I'm sure that the Brown's D got a lot of points today, too... I may have to pick them up; they could be a sleeper!

Loveshoe's Losers aren't doing quite as well, but I'm still predicting a win there -- I have 65 points, my opponent has 63, I still have a WR (Eddie Kennison, KC) and KC's defense going tonight... I think that they have a WR going tomorrow. I may have that backwards, but either way, I SMELL VICTORY!!

Well, it's almost time for kick-off -- can you smell what the PRIEST is COOKIN'???

The Fantasy Football Gods smile on me this year...
Mood:  celebratory
Now Playing: Melt with you -- modern english
Topic: Football
On my American Idol Fantasy team (Loveshoe's Losers), I have:

Chad Pennington
Jake Delhomme
Darrell Jackson
Amani Toomer (not great, but I'll take him)
Larry Fitzgerald (money, because Anquan Boldin is hurt)
Eddie Kennison (one of KC's only uninjured receivers)
Quincy Morgan (who knows what he'll do now that he has someone to throw to him)
Jamal Lewis (better not get his ass locked up!)
Moe Williams (Michael Bennett is always injured)
Edgerrin James (sooo frickin' money)
DeShaun Foster (will get the ball when Stephen Davis doesn't)
Kellen Winslow (just shut up and play!)
Bubba Franks (we'll see what he does this year)
Mike Vanderjagt (didn't miss one FG last year)
Kansas City Defense


On my Harms league (Puta's Pummellers):

Steve McNair (that loveable gun-totin' drunkard!)
Matt Hasselback
Terrell Owens (hehe! At the beginning of the season, I wanted to see Ray Lewis get a good hit on him, but I now retract that statement)
Joe Horn
Larry Fitzgerald (watch him get hurt since he's on both of my teams)
Donte' Stallworth (can't win `em all)
PRIEST HOLMES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (I can't believe somebody didn't have him ranked #1 - but I hope he doesn't go Ricky Williams on me)
EDGERRIN JAMES AGAIN?!?!?!!? (cool!)
Quentin Griffin (this guy is going to be great... he's a rookie, but just watch him)
Antonio Gates (supposed to be a sleeper)
Bubba Franks (I really didn't rank him high, honestly!)
Kevin Jones (another rookie, we'll see how he does)
Sebastian Janikowski (aka Seabass, aka the drunken Poll)
Paul Edinger (don't know much about this guy, but he's on the Bears - yikes!)
New Orleans Defense
Tampa Bay Defense


Not too shabby, eh? Yep, no Redskins on either of my teams. Sure, I'd take Lav Coles, Clinton Portis, and maybe even the `Skins defense. I'm going to keep an eye on them -- they sure looked good during the preseason for the most part.

Poor Kurtis had a bad draft - in both of his leagues. His teams are both at least decent as compared to my team last year. He's still trying to say that his team is better than mine... he sent me this email earlier...


I did a little research on last year's scoring, and I took the top scorer from each of our positions and here's what I found:


Puta
Crusher


QB
292
310

RB
359
192

RB
201
155

WR
158
259

WR
152
236

TE
47
68

K
120
124

D
316
377


1645
1721

(the top number at each position are my points, the bottom numbers are his)

But, whatever. It just matters what your oponent does that week... there's still a lot of luck involved! BTW... just for the hell of it, I looked up Kurt Warner's rankings... last year, his ranking was 1,674th!!! To his credit, his ranking is a respectable 195th this year. The lowest ranked player on my bench (AI League) is Eddie Kennison at 182. Lowest ranked on my Harms league (bench) is the New Orleans defense at 168. So that should give you an idea of just how hurting Kurt Warner is. Or at least how hurting he is in a Fantasy League sense. Wanna know what Kurt Warner is going to look like in every game this season? Here ya go!



OUCH!

That's all my bashing and boasting for now.

Article on Foxsports.com
Mood:  celebratory
Topic: Football
Here is a link to the article

And here is THE ARTICLE!

I've bolded the important paragraphs. But before I get to the paragraph -- Col Mustard, no disrespect meant to your Giants, but do you really think that Kurt Warner is going to do it for you?? He was a great QB a few years ago, don't get me wrong -- but did you notice that he got beat to hell the first game last year and just wasn't the same afterwards? Not to mention he was injured pretty much the entire 2002 season... he'll be a great veteran for Eli Manning to learn from, but that's about it. Warner will get injured sometime in the first 3 games of the season, or will just struggle so bad that they'll have to put in Manning, and it'll be a trial by fire for him. Manning is probably going to get pummeled as bad as Patrick Ramsey did last year, and hopefully he'll survive to be a great QB like his big brother... but we'll see. Don't sleep on my boy Chad Pennington... and with Delhomme as my backup, my team should be fine. At least in that league... we haven't had the draft yet for my work FF league.

And without further delay, let me post this most excellent article:

Follow the signs to '04 surprises Story Tools: Print Email
Vinnie Iyer /
Posted: 3 hours ago

The only predictable thing about the modern NFL is the unpredictability of the standings. Only four playoff teams from 2002 qualified for the postseason in '03, the lowest carryover since the postseason field expanded to 12 in 1990.

That gives hope to the 20 teams that didn't make the playoffs last season. That also makes it increasingly strenuous to forecast the next season.

Prognostication isn't an exact science, but there are sure signs that can help identify the underachieving or up-and-coming teams that have the best shot of turning things around and jumping into the playoffs:

1. First-class coaching
Start by looking for coaches who consistently have been to the playoffs. If the coach has a Super Bowl ring, the case for improvement is even stronger.

Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan, Dick Vermeil, Brian Billick and Bill Belichick, who had won six of the past seven Super Bowls before last season, led teams that didn't make the playoffs in 2002 into the postseason last year. Bill Parcells, a two-time Super Bowl winner, put the Cowboys back in the party after they went 5-11 in each of the three seasons before his arrival.

Of the other six playoff teams, just one -- the Panthers -- was coached by someone (John Fox) who never had been to the postseason.

What it means for '04: Jon Gruden and Joe Gibbs, the two other active coaches who have won Super Bowls, can't be counted out as they attempt to make the Buccaneers and Redskins forget disappointing seasons.

2. Ready for prime time
Though great coaching can overcome shortcomings in talent, it doesn't hurt to have blossoming offensive weapons. Holmgren's Seahawks, for instance, wouldn't have made the playoffs last season if Matt Hasselbeck hadn't developed into a star.

What it means for '04: The Lions and Texans have surrounded third-year quarterbacks Joey Harrington and David Carr with good support at running back and wide receiver. The Bengals and Jaguars have high expectations for second-year quarterbacks Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich.

3. Impact defensive rookies
Drafting prominent offensive skill players might grab more headlines, but rookies on defense often provide more immediate results -- even in specialized roles -- because they can rely on instincts and athleticism. Defensive backs Terence Newman (Cowboys), Ricky Manning (Panthers), Marcus Trufant and Ken Hamlin (Seahawks) and Eugene Wilson and Asante Samuel (Patriots) all were key contributors on playoff teams last season, as was Ravens outside linebacker Terrell Suggs, who had 12 sacks in situational duty.

What it means for '04: Watch out for cornerback Dunta Robinson (Texans), linebacker Jonathan Vilma (Jets), safety Sean Taylor (Redskins) and ends Will Smith (Saints) and Kenechi Udeze (Vikings). All will be filling major holes on their teams.

4. Stability in the pocket
After the Panthers used an ineffective mix of Rodney Peete, Randy Fasani and Chris Weinke in '02, a big reason for the team's success last season was the leadership and solid play of Jake Delhomme at quarterback. The Rams replaced Kurt Warner after Week 1 last year, then won 12 of their final 15 games with Marc Bulger starting.

Eliminating controversy and doubt at the most important position can bring a team together.

What it means for '04: Having Michael Vick and Chad Pennington healthy for a full year should completely change the complexion of the Falcons and Jets. The Browns turning to Jeff Garcia and the Bills working to accommodate their offense to Drew Bledsoe's skills are two other positive developments.

5. How did they finish?
You can't tell much by what a team did in the first half of a previous season, but how it played down the stretch usually is a hint of things to come. Take the Seahawks, who used a 3-0 finish in '02 as a springboard for '03.

What it means for '04: The Saints and Dolphins, who have reputations for fading late, actually enter this season with momentum. New Orleans went 7-4 after a 1-4 start, and Miami won five of its final seven games. Another positive for the Dolphins: They have no division road games after November 1.

6. Strength of schedule
This is the NFL's built-in mechanism for parity. While the Chiefs, Panthers and Cowboys took advantage of the schedule to go from worst to berths last season, the Buccaneers, 49ers, Raiders, Steelers and Jets couldn't maintain their division-winning status.

What it means for '04: The most dangerous teams from the bottom of the standings who could shoot up are the Falcons, Jaguars, Lions and Jets.

And the signs point to ...

After plugging all of these elements into the matrix, there are two clear front-runners as surprise teams for 2004: In the AFC, it's the Jaguars, who have the extra motivation that the Super Bowl will be played on their home field. In the NFC, it's the Redskins, thanks to Gibbs, Taylor and Clinton Portis.



So say the sportswriters!! It's the year for my SKINS!!!!